October 22, 2008

California Special Session in November?

Governor Schwarzenegger’s spokesperson has indicated the Governor’s interest in calling for a Special Session on the budget in November.

A lame duck session would include more than 30 members who have been termed-out of office, at least 40 more to be termed-out of office in 2010, and would exclude the individuals elected on November 4 who had not previously been serving in the Legislature.  The combination of the already termed-out (30) and the to-be-termed-out of office (40) members mean more than half and almost 2/3 of the lame duck session’s members will not be facing the voters again. More political freedom could be available to these members during a special session compared to a special session prior to the election.

The political dynamic also will depend on whether the Democrats increase their majorities in both the State Assembly and Senate on November 4th. 

At this time it appears that Democrats will pick up two and maybe three seats in the Assembly and potentially one additional seat in the Senate.  If the Democrats were to increase their majorities that would bring them closer to the 2/3 vote necessary to pass a budget and pass tax increases to fund the continuation of services or increase services.  However, if those majorities were to occur they would not be available until the new legislative session in December. 

If the Democrats are close to a 2/3 majority after the November 4th election, they might not be interested in working with the Governor and existing Republican leadership in making significant cuts or changes to the budget.  Instead they might wait for the forming of the new Legislature.  If the Democrats do not gain an additional State Senate seat and do not gain more than two additional Assembly seats, then all parties might be more interested in reaching agreement in November rather than waiting until December or January.

As always, public policy is defined by the political reality in which the policy is formed.  That political reality will be known after the November 4th election.

~Dave Walrath