October 24, 2013

Public Pension Politics

Mayor Chuck Reed of San Jose and four other mayors, with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, have submitted a public pension cut initiative for current public employees. The fact that it has been submitted to the Attorney General for title and summary before circulation is inducing a new dynamic to Sacramento politics and the November 2014 election. From a public employee union perspective this initiative is a dagger at their heart. Expect them to try to encourage people not to sign the initiative and, if it qualifies, to do whatever is politically and legally necessary to defeat the proposal or enjoin its implementation if it were to be enacted.

This means that they will organize a turnout similar to the November 2014 turnout that defeated Proposition 32, passed Proposition 30 and helped the state Democrats to gain two-thirds control of both the Assembly and State Senate. This type of turnout demographics is very good for a statewide bond. While the demographics are good, the public employee unions that have supported statewide school bonds will not have remaining money to help fund a school bond campaign. With the plus comes the minus.

While there is a plus/minus for a statewide bond, there also would be a plus/minus for local bonds. The higher turnout would probably help pass more local bonds, but if there is not a state bond to match the local funds, fewer school facility projects could be initiated.

The public pension proposal is just one of many possible ballot propositions that can affect a statewide school bond and local bond elections. We will be watching all of these possibilities and permutations as the election and initiative seasons progress.

~Dave Walrath